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1.Assiduously track the emerging Delta-plus variant. Remember the highly infectious Delta variant was first detected in October
Centre’s identification of the Delta-plus coronavirus as a “variant of concern” after it showed up in genome sequencing of samples from two districts each in Maharashtra, Kerala and Madhya Pradesh calls for greater national disease surveillance. This would translate to sending more Covid positive samples for genome sequencing, something not done adequately yet. It is important to get early intelligence on this variant’s extent of spread and asymptomatic infections, how vaccines work against this virus, and the progress of disease among those inoculated.
A number of states like Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand and Goa revealed this week that the Delta variant fanned their second waves. The Delta variant was first discovered in October 2020. The gestation period for the variant to trigger a recognisable spurt may be at least four months, given how cases in Vidarbha started mysteriously surging in February. The national picture currently represents a surprising skew where much of the south with better health facilities still records over 5% positivity rate, while the second wave appears to have largely subsided in the North.
The virus could still be transmitting undetected in areas with poor medical facilities. This could trigger another wave if states aren’t vigilant enough and not testing widely. Given the significant number of documented asymptomatic cases, states also need to supplement testing with commissioning serosurveys on a regular basis across all districts. The real time information generated from this pandemic is also vital to the country’s preparations for future epidemics. Let the waning of the second wave not cause disease surveillance efforts to flag.
2.Much more required: Govt will have to take vaccines to people, involve small private players & release timely, clear data on supplies
Times of India’s Edit Page team comprises senior journalists with wide-ranging interests who debate and opine on the news and issues of the day.
India’s spectacular count of 86 lakh doses, apparently to herald the revamped vaccination policy, showcases what the country is capable of, when vaccine supply meets demand. Remember, though, hopes were similarly raised when India notched 43 lakh doses on April 5. Things went downhill thereafter when the second wave peaked, vaccine production choked and Centre allowed states and private sector to directly purchase 50% of the depleting vaccine stocks. With some of those problems taken care of, taking vaccines to all people still remains a vast challenge.
Government officials have already said 80 lakh doses per day won’t happen in the coming weeks. But meeting Centre’s “vaccination for all” target by December 31 requires around 83 lakh doses daily, seven days a week. If the pace flags now, the required rate will grow steeper as we approach December. Boosting supply depends primarily on SII and BB delivering by July the 16 crore doses contracted by Centre in late April. Centre was entitled to just 50% of vaccine stocks then. If that translates to 8 crore doses available in the states’ quota till July, Centre mustn’t lose time in booking those doses too. Transparency in publishing vaccine allocations to states, stock positions and upcoming deliveries are crucial, not just for experts and the press, but people. Many clueless Covaxin recipients await their long overdue second dose.
If the 25% allocation to private sector keeps going unused, state governments must enrol private establishments for free vaccination, akin to pre-May 1 system. Only big hospital chains have demonstrated the capability to place bulk orders. Small private hospitals and clinics, which most Indians frequent, can ease states’ inoculation burden. States can even reimburse their service costs to uphold the free vaccination principle.
CoWin’s digital divide has manifested in the tech savvy using vaccine-finder apps to quickly snap up vacant slots. The vast urban working class and the rural population, who wage a daily battle to make a living, are handicapped by lack of awareness, tyranny of distance, and vaccine hesitancy. Governments must take vaccines to them, with incentives like free rations if needed. Mobile vaccination vans are the best bet. Lastly, with two Covishield doses proving effective in reducing hospitalisation and vaccine supplies improving, epidemiologists seeking reduction of the 12-16 week dosing gap must be heeded. Saving lives, minimising emergency medical expenditure, and enjoying a full economic unlock are reasons enough to spare no expense or effort in aiming for a December closure.
3.The quest for a third front
Regional parties are energised. But the battle of 2024 can’t be fought without the Congress. It isn’t strong enough to take on the BJP on its own, but has enough power to drag down the rest of the Opposition. And that is why while the focus on the third front can be useful in raising issues of federalism and providing a counter-narrative, it won’t change the electoral landscape.
There is renewed buzz around that perennial variable in Indian politics — a third front, or a coalition of regional and smaller forces. Mamata Banerjee and MK Stalin’s recent electoral success have increased the morale of those opposed to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). What was common to both victories was the presence of political strategist-turned-politician, Prashant Kishor, as a consultant. The fact that he helped the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, and YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh win elections in the last two years has lent him credibility. Mr Kishor’s meetings with Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar, first in Mumbai and then in Delhi, triggered speculation about a broad coalition of anti-BJP regional forces.
But as Mr Kishor himself said after the meeting with Mr Pawar, he did not believe a third or fourth front could take on Narendra Modi. At a separate meeting on Tuesday with other leaders opposed to the BJP, Mr Pawar reportedly indicated that there could no third front without the Congress. This is a pragmatic assessment about the limits of even strong regional parties. In some geographies where the BJP is their primary adversary, for instance Maharashtra or West Bengal, they may be able reduce the BJP’s numbers. In other regions, where the BJP is weak, for instance Tamil Nadu or Andhra Pradesh, even a stellar performance may not affect the BJP’s overall prospects if the 2019 electoral map is an indication.