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1.Lessons from UK’s transition out of the Covid-related restrictions
The UK is scheduled to begin a transition to complete normalcy beginning 19 July. Initially, it will be England that will do away with restrictions such as caps at concerts. Subsequently, the other regions of the UK will follow suit. Following Covid protocols will be left entirely to the discretion of the residents.
UK has opted for this controversial transition even as there has been a recent spike in daily cases of people testing positive for Covid. The most recent daily addition was 28,344 cases. To put this number in context, the UK has a population of 67.8 million. In contrast, India’s daily addition of cases is 45,632 with a population of about 1.4 billion.
What’s driving UK policy to open up completely amidst a rise in cases? It’s the country’s success with vaccination. Around 84.6% of the adult population has received at least one dose, with 64.6% being fully vaccinated. This has led to a relative reduction in severe illness and deaths among those who have tested positive. The virus won’t disappear but it no longer carries the same level of threat.
It’s the extent of vaccination coverage that has emboldened the UK government to transition to full normalcy and get their economy functioning without barriers.
2.Big change, big task: Modi’s new team has the job of reviving India
Three things stand out in yesterday’s big Cabinet reshuffle. First, Narendra Modi has clearly sent out a performance message – crucial remits with great bearing on India’s post-pandemic revival, like health, education, labour, aviation, petroleum, pharma, IT, telecom and railways, will be helmed by new ministers. As will be crucial portfolios like law and I&B. The standout new minister in terms of the PM’s big bet is ex-IAS Ashwini Vaishnaw, who’s got IT, telecom and railways. That Vaishnaw gets these jobs held earlier by supposed Cabinet heavyweights says a lot about how much is expected of him. Expectations will also be high for Mansukh Mandaviya, who has health and pharma (part of chemicals). The conjoining of health and pharma should have happened long back. Covid finally made GoI see this.
Jyotiraditya Scindia, doing what his father did in a Congress government, civil aviation, inherits a portfolio that oversees an industry now in great trouble. He, too, is expected to deliver. As are the likes of Kiren Rijiju, who’s got law at a time GoI and SC are often in vocal disagreement. Amit Shah’s charge of cooperation is interesting too, given state governments have traditionally dominated cooperatives.
Second, there’s a razor-sharp focus on politics and coming elections. There is a clear message on representational politics, reflecting regions and social constituencies crucial for BJP, especially for assembly polls in 2022 and 2023. With UP heading for elections next year, a number of OBC faces have made the cut. SP is pinning its hopes on reviving its OBC vote. BJP appears to have anticipated the danger. The increased representation for Bengal is aimed at bolstering the BJP’s state unit’s sapped morale amid TMC aggression. Most of the inductees are less than 50 and seven are women – signalling great care in age and gender balancing.
Third, with 77 members, this is Modi’s biggest council of ministers. This big team has the job of getting pandemic-battered India back on track. Just days to go before the 30th anniversary of reforms, the economy is in the worst shape in 30 years. The vaccination question is not fully answered. A Covid third wave remains a potent fear. If the council of ministers’ primary job is to govern, this new Modi team has its task cut out.
3. A negative stimulus
The price of petrol crossed ₹100 per litre in Delhi on July 7; it is now more than ₹100 in all metros
The price of petrol crossed ₹100 per litre in Delhi on July 7; it is now more than ₹100 in all metros. It is true that crude prices have increased significantly over the last one year. The average price of Brent crude has increased from $43.3 per barrel in July 2020 to $75.29 on July 7. However domestic taxes, especially the ones imposed by the Union government, are also to blame. Of the ₹98.87 per litre cost of petrol in Delhi on July 1 (latest date for which price data is available), the price charged to dealers and their commission accounted for only ₹43.15 per litre. Union excise duties and state value-added tax contributed ₹32.9 and ₹22.82 per litre respectively. The actual tax component, once customs duties are included, will be higher.
Both the Union and state governments raised taxes on petroleum products when international crude prices crashed due to the pandemic last year. This was a wise thing to do back then. Other sources of revenue collapsed due to the 68-day-long national lockdown, imposed to curb the spread of the pandemic. But since crude prices were lower, the retail price burden did not increase. Neither of these conditions holds anymore. The Union government has been claiming that the economy is recovering. Crude prices have risen significantly, leading to a sharp spike in prices, pushing inflation and economic distress. Contrary to perceived wisdom, rising petrol-diesel prices do not just impact the rich. A 2014 petroleum ministry survey shows that 60% of petrol is used by two-wheelers. The price of diesel has a cascading impact via transportation cost and cost of cultivation in agriculture.
4. Perfecting the test
CBSE’s plan for Class 10 and 12 assessments should incorporate needs of stressed schools
Preparing for an uncertain academic year ahead during the pandemic, the Central Board of Secondary Education has decided on an assessment scheme for Classes 10 and 12 for 2021-22 under various scenarios, including the possibility that Board examinations can be conducted, should circumstances improve. The year gone by was extremely challenging for all Boards, and the CBSE had to hastily come up with a scheme to assess candidates in Class 12. It became clear that even with its high emphasis of academics, there was considerable deprivation for some students, and not all got the opportunity to complete their syllabus or attend online classes even in the national capital. The wide coverage of the Board, as of 2019, includes 1,138 Kendriya Vidyalayas, 2,727 government schools, 17,553 independent schools, 598 Jawahar Navodaya Vidyalayas and 14 Central Tibetan schools, and schools abroad. The diversity of students and their varied backgrounds was apparently reckoned to some degree while drafting the scheme for the coming year, which includes a mix of internal assessments for Classes 9-10 and 11-12, and term examinations in November-December and in March-April 2022. There will be a rationalised, compartmentalised syllabus split into two halves for each term. The scheme, which has the benefit of advance planning unlike the past year, must be responsive to the issues faced by all institutions in remote locations and the deprivation faced by less privileged students.
The CBSE’s special scheme relies on syllabus rationalisation done through expert evaluation of interconnectivity of subjects, and a centralised protocol of question papers and marking scheme for the term examinations. In the case of term I, it will be a multiple-choice question (MCQ) type test stretching over 90 minutes, with machine-readable optical marking, and for term II, a short-and-long-answers model, if circumstances permit. Efficient as it may sound, the multiple-choice model is critiqued by some as inferior, with sometimes irrelevant and meaningless questions that add up to little in terms of assessment, helping only the marking process. An adjunct to the MCQ pattern could be a decentralised process, empowering regional CBSE units and external experts to consider the state of particular districts and come up with assessments tailored to specific situations. At the same time, the Board has done well to plan for different scenarios that could be imposed by the pandemic, where either of the term examinations or both cannot be held, or the second term has to be converted into the MCQ type. The fallback option in the worst-case scenario is a combination of internal assessments, practical and project work and theory examinations taken at home. The extreme uncertainty underscores the need to take online lessons to all classes of students, and factor in schools with special needs.
5. The Taliban should not be allowed to take control of Afghanistan through bloodshed
The rapid territorial gains made by the Taliban over the last two months should worry both the Afghan government and the regional powers who are invested in the country’s long-term stability. The Taliban started their latest offensive on May 1, the day the remaining U.S. troops started withdrawing as part of President Joe Biden’s plan. With 90% of U.S. withdrawal complete, the Taliban have taken control of 195 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts, and are contesting 129 others. Most of their recent victories are in the northern provinces of Badakhshan and Takhar, which had resisted Taliban rule in the 1990s. In several northern districts, Afghan troops have either surrendered or retreated. If the north, home to Afghanistan’s elite power brokers and leaders, is lost, the risk of a total collapse of the government in Kabul would increase. The government still controls most of the provincial capitals and cities but are practically surrounded by the Taliban. Given the pace of the Taliban’s advancement in the countryside, it is possible they could launch an offensive to take the population centres once the foreign troops are out.
The Taliban’s strategy is still not clear. Their political office in Doha, which started peace talks with Afghan government representatives in September 2020, continues to say they are committed to the dialogue. But on the battlefield in Afghanistan, they continue a relentless campaign aimed at capturing more territories. Part of the problem was the total abdication of leadership and responsibility by the U.S., which invaded Afghanistan 20 years ago. When direct talks between the U.S. and the Taliban began, the U.S.’s focus was not on finding a peaceful settlement to the crisis that it partly created, but on exiting the war. Therefore, instead of putting pressure on the Taliban to extract concessions, the U.S. struck a deal with them, completely ignoring the concerns of Kabul. Now, the Taliban are much more powerful on the ground and even if the peace process is revived after American pullout, they would negotiate from a position of strength. But that should not stop Kabul and regional powers China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and India from seeking a political settlement. A violent takeover of the country by the Taliban, like in 1996, would not serve anybody’s interests. The Taliban would also not find international legitimacy if they capture Kabul through bloodshed. Afghan’s past experiences suggest that one-party regimes — the communist regime, Mujahideen or the Taliban — failed to stabilise the country or sustain themselves in the long term. Now that the invading troops are exiting Afghanistan, the warring parties’ focus should shift towards settlement and building lasting structures of power. Else, Afghanistan would fall into another cycle of violence.