1.A counting question, for 27% OBC reservation in medical education

The Centre has approved 27% reservations for OBCs under the all-India quota for UG and PG programmes in medical and dental colleges. Alongside the increased representation of OBCs in the Cabinet, this is aimed at consolidating support ahead of next year’s five assembly elections even as it offsets the unfavourable political impact of the Supreme Court judgment that the passage of the 102nd Amendment in 2018 means states no longer have any power to identify ‘socially and educationally backward’ classes.

The 27% figure has followed from the Mandal Commission which in 1980 recommended this reservation quota for OBCs in government jobs and educational institutes based on an estimated 52% OBC population in the country, an estimate which in turn derives from the 1931 Census that enumerated a wide range of castes, albeit at a time when India’s population including that of present-day Pakistan and Bangladesh was only 270 million.

Quite apart from the 52% OBC population estimate being from another era, the Rohini commission on finding that over the past five years just 10 caste groups have constituted 25% of beneficiaries while over 1,000 have had no representation at all, has recommended sub-categorisation for the quota to better meet its goal of social uplift of deprived communities.In other complicating data, UDISE+ primary school enrollment data suggests that the nationwide OBC population is 45% but with wide regional variations, ranging from 71% in Tamil Nadu to 15% in Punjab.

When all other pretences of making India a casteless society have been abandoned, and caste-based appeals of different sections of society get a hearing depending on their clout, what sense does it make to not enumerate the castes afresh, instead of continuing to work with a 1931 estimate? From Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and MoS social justice and empowerment Ramdas Athawale to the Maharashtra assembly and the National Commission for Backward Classes, this is where the call for a caste-based Census is coming from. It is logical given the continuing expansion of quota politics, even if this very expansion speaks to the utter failure of reservation to meet its stated policy goals.

2.Cut fuel taxes: Demand is weak. High petrol, diesel retail prices aren’t helping. And they are stoking inflation

Rising crude oil prices combining with weak economic growth impulses should worry policymakers. GoI’s economic mandarins however see it as an opportunity to boost tax revenue. Chief Economic Advisor K Subramanian, in an interview to this paper, said India’s fuel taxes don’t stand out when compared to international levels, particularly Western Europe and Japan. This bears scrutiny.

The price of the Indian basket of crude has increased 50% this year to around $74 a barrel. Retail prices of petrol and diesel are way more because of taxes. In mid-July, petrol was supplied to Delhi’s dealers at Rs 41.39 a litre. It cost the consumers Rs 101.58 because of a 145% mark-up mainly on account of central and state taxes. To compare these numbers with those of Europe or Japan, which are far higher on the economic ladder and have much better public transport, is questionable. Plus, many Europeans and Japanese have been recipients of generous fiscal transfers during the pandemic – most Indians haven’t received such benefits.

Fuel price increase has played a disproportionate role in stoking inflation. In June, the headline inflation, or CPI, was 6.3%. Fuel weightage in CPI is 6.84%, but it contributed 13% of the headline inflation. Beyond that, there are second round effects as transport and communication have about 8.59% weightage in CPI. This segment inflated 11.56% in June. Fuel costs are also feeding into input costs of industrial production.

This trend has come in the backdrop of weakness in aggregate demand. RBI’s take on the state of the economy in June-July indicates that a solid increase in aggregate demand is yet to take shape. It concludes that even GDP growth of 9.5% this year will leave the economy with substantial slack. So, the problem is not one of an overheating economy. It’s one of weak demand.

This is why high fuel taxes now are hurting. Research by SBI using trends in credit card spending shows that as the economy is opening up, spending is being reallocated from groceries to fuel. This will not help firm up domestic demand. Even credit-driven revival packages have inherent limitations. RBI says that flow of banks’ funds through all routes to the economy grew 6.8% as against 9.7% a year ago. With almost half of urban workers employed in the battered services and construction sectors, GoI should cut fuel taxes to put some money in the hands of consumers.

3.Tiger conservation: India’s strides and challenges

While increased protection has encouraged tigers to breed, it has also led to migration from the safety of reserves

On International Tiger Day (July 29), Prime Minister Narendra Modi reaffirmed that the government is committed to ensuring safe habitats for tigers and nurturing tiger-friendly ecosystems in India, home to over 70% of the world’s tiger population. The last tiger census (2018) pegged the big cat’s population at 2,967, marking an increase of about 30% compared to the 2014 report (2,226). In 2010, the tiger population was estimated at 1,706, while in 2006 it was 1,411. India’s tiger conservation journey started in 1973 with Project Tiger with nine reserves; today, it has 50 tiger reserves in 18 states.

The steady growth in the number of tigers and reserves happened because of State support; vigilance and conservation efforts by the forest department, especially its frontline staff; and the involvement of local communities that help secure forests and participate in ecotourism activities in many of the popular and revenue-generating tiger reserves.