1.Talk to small kisans: BJP’s rhetoric on farm protests isn’t helping. It needs to politically connect with the non-rich rural majority

Uttar Pradesh’s Lakhimpur Kheri tragedy, which saw death of both farmers and BJP workers, came amid escalation of provocative rhetoric in recent weeks. Farm unions’ strategy of agitating in Delhi and UP and social boycott of BJP lawmakers leaves GoI two options: politically isolating protesters or repealing farm laws. The second option is a terrible one, and is to be avoided. But the first approach must eschew inflammatory statements like those from Haryana chief minister ML Khattar and junior home minister Ajay Mishra Teni. Antagonistic rhetoric from BJP allows farm union leaders to don the mantle of victims. Everyone should remember that a festering standoff is dangerous. Now is the time to pull back and show political maturity, recognising the agitation can go out of hand, especially with Punjab and UP heading for polls.

GoI had worked under the presumption that Union laws to reform farm trade would insulate state governments, typically more vulnerable to political pressures. In hindsight, lack of public consultation and disinclination to hear opposition views were a mistake. As GoI’s deliberations with farm unions have failed and are unlikely to succeed, Supreme Court must expedite long-delayed hearings on farm legislations. SC’s indefinite stay on their implementation isn’t helping nor has its exercise of forming a consultative committee to examine the laws. Acceleration of the judicial process may cool political tempers.

The untenability of agriculture in its present form is the crux of the political argument for farm reforms. BJP should sell the idea to voters.But so far BJP is lacking the fine messaging skill needed here. Big farmers benefiting from MSP and procurement support in rice, wheat and sugarcane in three states are not thinking of small farmers, who don’t benefit from the current system. Neither do growers of crops that don’t attract high support prices. Also, farm workers, a huge constituency, are not part of the spoils system engendered by the MSP regime. BJP needs to go out and explain why a small group of rich farmers can’t dictate agriculture. It should consider hiking the level of quarterly income support given to small farmers. And on a broader scale, BJP must recognise that industrial jobs are the only answer to underemployed rural economic actors. All of this means the standard of BJP’s popular rhetoric on farm reforms must rise, especially as the high-voltage UP campaign gathers pace.

2.Hello Taiwan: New Delhi should boost ties with Taipei not just because of Chinese threat. There are other benefits

In a clear threat to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, China sent more than 100 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone over the weekend. The latest round of provocative manoeuvres began last Friday with China celebrating its 73rd national day. The incursions are clearly meant to intimidate Taiwan, which Beijing sees as a renegade Chinese province. Since 1949 Taiwan – officially Republic of China – has maintained a separate identity and evolved into a successful multiparty democracy. But ever since the current Democratic Progressive Party came to power in Taiwan in 2016 and refused to accept Beijing’s ‘One China’ formulation, the island state has been at the receiving end of sustained Chinese military, diplomatic and economic pressure.

In that sense, Taiwan, much like India, is a frontline democratic state facing China’s aggression. Both New Delhi and Taipei have been targeted by Beijing’s grey-zone tactics that are meant to provoke and intimidate short of all-out conflict. This should actually bring India and Taiwan closer as Asian democracies. In fact, Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy seeks to boost ties with South and Southeast Asian nations, including India. Progress has been relatively slow with the Indian side still cautious about boosting ties with Taiwan given Chinese sensitivities.

But after the Galwan valley clashes last year and repeated Chinese intrusions across the LAC, India should review its strict adherence to the ‘One China’ policy. Boosting ties with Taiwan also has standalone benefits. It is a semiconductor powerhouse and reportedly bilateral talks are underway to bring chip manufacturing – a key strategic sector – to India. Much cooperation can also be achieved in green technology, IT, digital healthcare and telecom with Taiwanese companies looking to relocate operations from China. Thus, India would do well to abandon its cautious approach and elevate ties with Taiwan both for strategic and economic reasons.

3.Needless escalation: On Lakhimpur Kheri violence

Violence in Lakhimpur Kheri will increase trust deficit between farmers and Government

The deaths of eight people, four of whom were mowed down by a vehicle that was part of the convoy of Union Minister of State for Home Affairs and BJP MP Ajay Kumar Mishra, in Lakhimpur Kheri in north-central Uttar Pradesh, marks an escalation of violence in a movement that has tried to remain peaceful. While the agitators and the BJP have traded charges on who is responsible, the incident has also worsened chances of a rapprochement between the farmers protesting against farm laws introduced last year and the Union government. There has been little headway since January this year, when the Government agreed to a few demands and also promised to keep the farm laws in abeyance, and after the Supreme Court stayed their implementation. But the distrust between the unions representing the agitators and the Government has remained high, with the farmers refusing to budge from their maximalist position seeking a repeal of the three laws passed last year — the Farmers’ Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Act, and the Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act.

The farmers are also willing to continue the protest indefinitely, with its intensity increasing after the harvest season even as their methods have come to the unfavourable notice of Supreme Court judges. A Court-appointed committee to facilitate dialogue with the farmers submitted its report on the laws in March but it is yet to be made public. The experience of the economic reforms since 1991 has shown that rushing them through without political consensus — even if they have merits — by ignoring crucial stakeholders creates severe discontent. Farming in much of India has largely been dependent upon State subsidies, procurement and support pricing — and any sudden change in these inputs may jolt the sector, which has been prone to crises in the last few decades, even if the Government claims that liberalising the farm sector will enhance agricultural incomes. It is true that the protesting farmer unions are concentrated in Punjab, Haryana and western U.P., where the involvement of the State in agricultural procurement, awareness of minimum support prices and the presence of mandis is more robust. But it is also true that institutional redress mechanisms to take into account farmers’ concerns have not been put in place. After all, the laws were passed without sufficient deliberation through parliamentary committees and public hearings even as the Bills were rushed, by voice votes, in the Upper House of Parliament. This, no doubt, is the reason for the lingering trust deficit. The U.P. government must impartially investigate the incident in Lakhimpur Kheri but it is also imperative for the BJP-led Union government to restore mechanisms of procedural democracy to bridge the trust deficit. Restarting talks with the unions will be a good beginning.

4.Mamata’s march: On West Bengal CM’s win

The West Bengal Chief Minister has reinforced her image as a leader willing to take on the BJP

The victory of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in the Bhabanipur by-poll in West Bengal has come as no surprise but the margin of the victory and the little resistance put up by the Opposition parties including the Bharatiya Janata Party have come as a shot in the arm for the ruling Trinamool Congress. Ms Banerjee’s record winning margin of 58,832 votes is more than twice the margin of victory secured by the TMC candidate at the same constituency, located in the heart of Kolkata, five months ago in the State’s Assembly polls. The ruling party won all the three seats that went to the polls on September 30 in the State. In Jangipur, the margin of victory for the TMC candidate was over 92,000 votes and at Samserganj, the Trinamool Congress nominee won by over 26,000 votes. In two out of three seats, the BJP was the main opposition to the TMC but in Samserganj, the Congress nominee secured about 70,000 votes, pushing the BJP to the third position. Though Ms. Banerjee could not win the Nandigram seat in the Assembly election early this year, her decision to contest that seat considerably boosted her party. With her election as an MLA just in time to meet the six month deadline, Ms. Banerjee has capped her party’s impressive victory in May.

The outcomes also reinforce her positioning as a leader who has the gumption to confront the BJP that had left no stone unturned in its attempt to unseat her. The BJP stands further tamed after the by-poll outcomes. It put up a political greenhorn, Priyanka Tibrewal, to contest against the charismatic and popular Ms. Banerjee. The West Bengal BJP, which found it difficult to get the right candidates to contest against TMC nominees in the Assembly polls, continues to grapple with the same challenge five months later. The BJP central leadership stayed away from the campaign unlike earlier this year. The State leaders of the party were no match to the Trinamool Congress, in strategy or popularity. The State unit of the BJP was hoping that the Election Commission of India (ECI) may not announce the polls within the six-month deadline that the Chief Minister had to meet. Apparently taken by surprise, they spent time challenging the ECI decision in the courts rather than campaigning on the ground. The TMC government’s focus on cash transfer and other welfare schemes continues to draw the support of the electorate, while the issues of violence and corruption raised by the BJP did not strike a chord with them. The results also point to the continuing resistance to the BJP’s polarising tactics in West Bengal, and the party’s difficulty in tailoring a politics that is suitable for the region.