1.Don’t eat them up: Govts, care more for businesses like restaurants

Today’s the first weekend this year where many cities will see a semblance of normalcy. Unlike earlier occasions, states this time have not let weekend restrictions linger even though daily new infections average around 2.5 lakh. It spells relief for India’s beleaguered contact-intensive businesses such as eateries. This sector has been among the worst hit over the last two years. The National Restaurant Association of India last year estimated that the pandemic-induced lockdowns had put around 25% of restaurants out of business, leading to retrenchment of about 2.4 million employees. The scale of damage was surely avoidable.

States during the Omicron wave raised their game by linking mobility restrictions to the extent of stress on the healthcare infrastructure. Going forward, this should be the primary metric to guide decisions. Another approach that needs to be avoided is differentiating between essential and other activities to decide on shutdowns. Every activity generates jobs and arbitrary demarcations undermine livelihoods. To illustrate, across India gyms have been amongst the worst hit by shutdowns, which have often persisted long after other activities resumed. Typically, the average Indian business is small sized which makes it impossible for most to survive prolonged shutdowns.

One of the unheralded aspects of India’s services sector is that it’s an important source of employment for low-skilled and unskilled youth. Most of them pick up skills on the job which then provides a pathway to upward mobility. Large-scale closures, like those of restaurants, have long-term consequences in India’s job market. After living with the novel coronavirus for almost two years, people have developed a sense of the associated risks. Consequently, governments should avoid any kind of closure based on the incidence of infection and just focus on keeping healthcare infrastructure prepared. This approach will have a positive spin-off on economic activity and jobs.

2. Soldier to Commander: Live up to the Republic Day promise to women

Marching crisply and saluting the President of India, Lieutenant Commander Aanchal Sharma led the naval contingent. Lieutenant Manisha Bohra led the Army Ordnance Corps contingent. India’s first woman Rafale jet pilot, Flight Lieutenant Shivangi Singh saluted from the deck of the air force tableau. Women from BSF’s Seema Bhawani motorcycle team put up a fine daredevil display. In short, this year’s Republic Day parade displayed women’s expanding role in the Indian military with instructive and inspiring vividity.

Such imagery can play an important role in changing mindsets and mending prejudices. It can encourage young women to consider military careers even as it helps erase their families’ nervousness about this. But all such social change banks on institutional change, on the forces welcoming women soldiers and promoting them fairly. On this front a lot of the push has actually come from the Supreme Court’s side, while the forces have kept petitioning for more time to mitigate “operational, practical and cultural problems”.

For example, last week saw SC asking government to explain why the intake of women candidates at the National Defence Academy has been prelimited at only 19 for the upcoming session, which is how many women were inducted last year. Hasn’t NDA set up the infrastructure needed for a full intake of women yet? Warfare has changed dramatically since the 20th century, modern armies need an appropriately wider skill-set. They need women.

3.At the Centre: On India-Central Asia summit

India must stay in step with the changes in the Central Asian region

As the joint statement at the end of the India-Central Asia virtual summit on Thursday noted, ties between India and the region have been historically close, with “civilisational, cultural, trade and people-to-people linkages”, but the lack of access to land routes, and the situation in Afghanistan are among the biggest challenges. Hosted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the Presidents of the five Central Asian Republics (CARs), it was a first, building on years of dialogue. The summit also came after the meeting of NSAs in Delhi, where they built on several common themes of concern and priority. To begin with, there is the problem of routing trade — a paltry $2 billion, spent mostly on Kazakhstan’s energy exports to India. In comparison, China’s CAR trade figures have exceeded $41 billion — they could double by 2030 — apart from the billions of dollars invested in the Belt and Road Initiative. With Pakistan denying India transit trade, New Delhi’s other option is to smoothen the route through Iran’s Chabahar port, but that will involve greater investment in rail and road routes to Iran’s northern boundaries with the CARs, something India is hesitant to do in the face of U.S. sanctions. A third option is to use the Russia-Iran International North-South Transport Corridor via Bandar Abbas port, but this is not fully operational and at least two CARs (Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) are not members. India too, has dragged its feet over TAPI gas pipeline plans (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India), due to supply guarantees, given the tensions with Pakistan. Finally, there is Afghanistan: the tenuous link between Central Asia and South Asia, where after the Taliban takeover, there is no official government, a humanitarian crisis is building, and there are worries of terrorism and radicalism spilling over its boundaries. Each theme has been outlined in the summit joint statement as areas to work upon. They have also agreed to more structured engagement, including the setting up of joint working groups, on Afghanistan and Chabahar, and more educational and cultural opportunities.

While the attempt by India to institutionalise exchanges and press the pedal on trade, investment and development partnerships with the CARs is timely, it is by no means the only country strengthening its ties here. While Russia is the most strategic player, China is now the biggest development and infrastructure partner to the countries. The CAR Presidents held a similar virtual summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier. Pakistan has also increased its outreach to the CARs, signing transit trade agreements, offering trade access to the Indian Ocean at Gwadar and Karachi. India will need to move nimbly to ensure it stays in step with the changes, and to make certain the future of ties more closely resembles the deep ties of the distant past.

4.Valley and hills: On Manipur poll battle

The BJP is seeking to bridge the divide between tribals and other people in Manipur

The Bharatiya Janata Party is eyeing its second straight term in Manipur. In 2017, the party had finished second with 21 seats in the 60-strong Assembly, behind the 28 seats won by the Congress. Forming an alliance with the National People’s Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF) that had four MLAs each, one MLA each from the Trinamool Congress, the Lok Janshakti Party, an Independent and a Congress defector (who was Minister until his disqualification three years later), the party managed to cross the halfway mark. Defections continued, including from parties allied with the BJP. The BJP now has 30 MLAs while the Congress has 13 — but an MLA has now joined the Janata Dal (United), the BJP’s national ally. The party in power at the Centre manages to exercise undue influence in Manipur politics, and that trend could continue this time too. The BJP has no pre-poll alliance, while its principal rival, the Congress, has announced a tie-up with five smaller parties, including the Communist Party of India. Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren Singh was himself once a Congress leader. A challenge to his continuance from within the BJP, if it were to form the government, is a likely scenario. Thongam Biswajit Singh, PWD Minister and an influential party functionary, could well be in contention. In neighbouring Assam, the BJP had replaced its Chief Minister after winning a second term last year.

In the broad geographical divide in the State, the Imphal Valley, where the Hindu, non-tribal Meitei community dominates, has an edge over the surrounding hills inhabited by the largely Christian Naga and Kuki-Zomi communities. The Valley has 40 seats and the hills, 20. The BJP and its ideological partner, the RSS, have tapped the Valley for decades now, but the party also has a foothold among Christians. In the event of a hung Assembly, the NPP and the NPF, both fighting alone in their respective strongholds, could emerge influential. The NPF’s role is limited to a part of the Naga-inhabited hills. The JD(U) is also in the fray again. The Congress hopes the defections would help it regenerate with fresh faces. The BJP wishes its focus on infrastructure, rural housing, water supply, electrification and other schemes would help it. The CM’s “go to hills” and “go to villages” programmes sought to bridge the psychological divide between the hills and the Valley. The demand for the repeal of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act unites all sections of Manipur society. The demand for Scheduled Tribe status for the Meitei community, the enactment of the Manipur (Hill Areas) Autonomous District Councils Bill 2021 for providing more autonomy to the tribal councils, and the Hill Areas Committee comprising all the 20 MLAs of Manipur’s hills also will be talking points in the campaign.