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- A lesson for the State and markets
There is a lesson from this self-inflicted irrational exuberance — now that the government itself recognises the possibility of future waves
The National Statistical Office released the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) numbers for March 2021 on May 12. While the 22.4% headline growth number has a strong base effect — IIP contracted by 18.7% in March 2020 — it suggests a strong revival in economic activity in March. The fact that other high frequency indicators such as Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections for April crossed ₹1.4 lakh crore also supports such a view.
To be sure, tailwinds from the festive season might have had a role in this pick-up. But it will not be far-fetched to assume that both the State and the markets were beginning to believe that the economy had left the pandemic behind it. Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) touched 99.3 in the last week of February. The weekly average of daily new cases reached its lowest levels since June 2020 in the first half of February. Everybody pressed on the throttle in March. And indeed, if all had been well, India’s economic recovery may have sustained.
But as India battles the second wave, it is clear that the optimism wasn’t warranted — and indeed, the spike in economic activity may well have exacerbated the health crisis. Had preventive and vigilance measures been put in place earlier, even if it had slowed down the transient economic recovery in March, the second wave may well have been muted. There is a lesson from this self-inflicted irrational exuberance — now that the government itself recognises the possibility of future waves. Markets are driven by self-interest and cannot be expected to mitigate risks from lowered vigilance against the pandemic. It is the State’s responsibility to cover for this rather than becoming a cheerleader.
2.Over 216 crore more vaccine doses in the pipeline by December, but only good planning will ensure that they materialise
Centre’s statement that India will produce over 216 crore vaccine doses between August and December represents an ambitious scaling up of its manufacturing capacity. Current workhorses Covishield and Covaxin will yield 75 crore and 55 crore doses respectively, while others including Sputnik V and vaccines under trial from Novavax, Zydus Cadila, Biological E and Bharat Biotech’s nasal vaccine will contribute the rest.
Evidently, much rests on the vaccines under trial passing clinical trials. To spur production, government must consider making advance payments for these vaccines so that the companies are incentivised to take the risk and commence production before the approvals come through. This is what the United States did with Operation Warp Speed by hedging its bets and pumping money into multiple vaccine candidates. Having sanctioned Rs 4,500 crore for Serum Institute and Bharat Biotech, Centre must offer matching funds to the other companies too.
Here again, with state governments and private sector too involved in purchasing vaccines, it remains to be seen whether these entities will have appetite for risky bets on under trial vaccines, which will require Centre to step up. The money spent on booking vaccine doses will be recovered manifold by the quick economic recovery they can trigger by retarding virus spread and ensuring a more confident withdrawal of lockdown curbs. August is very far away but governments mustn’t lose time in doing what is necessary on their end to facilitate ramping up production of these vaccines. Get moving now.
3. Novel rumblings: Adityanath government’s handling of Covid crisis faces rising criticism from within BJP
Uttar Pradesh BJP chief Swatantra Dev Singh’s candid admission that his party didn’t foresee Covid spreading to villages comes amid the state’s rural areas reporting 65% of fresh infections. And this may be a significant undercount: India’s most populous state has a vast rural hinterland with poor healthcare facilities. States with far smaller populations are reporting more daily cases, which also raises the possibility that UP just isn’t testing enough. Meanwhile, other manifestations of vast distress have surfaced.
Teachers’ unions have furnished details of their peers who may have died of Covid after polling duty in the four-phase panchayat elections. BJP MPs and MLAs starting from Union minister Santosh Gangwar have complained of overwhelmed hospitals to CM Adityanath, some of them from bitter personal experience too. Dumping of dead bodies in the Ganga and Yamuna rivers is of course the most grim sign that people are in crying need of help. No civilised society should remain unmended after such a denouement for its dead.
A government lacking capacity to tackle a calamity must, alternatively, allow people to fearlessly seek non-governmental help. Unfortunately, UP set a bad precedent several weeks ago warning of coercive action against “rumours” of oxygen shortage. A prompt SC reprimand appears to have prompted rethink. Allahabad HC has attempted to remedy the governance deficit through a series of orders to ease oxygen supply, availability of essential medicines, and grievance redressal at the district level. For the dead teachers, it overruled UP government’s offer of Rs 30 lakh compensation, noting at least Rs 1 crore was deserved after their being compelled into polling duties without basic protections like RT-PCR screening.
The pandemic has turned past failings into deep wounds. UP has one doctor per 3,767 people (Tamil Nadu’s ratio is 1:253) and even this could be greatly skewed towards cities. Its density of active nurse workforce is among the lowest. Given the overall reluctance to accept accountability, Singh’s confession stands out even if it is of little comfort to those afflicted by Covid. The Adityanath government must heed its legislators and function with greater responsiveness, compassion and science. It will need aid and resources. But these can only flow in required quantities if the data is good. For example if testing is suboptimal, and fewer cases are revealed, oxygen allocation will be lower. Remedying the crisis begins with measuring it right.
4.A lesson for the State and markets
The National Statistical Office released the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) numbers for March 2021 on May 12. While the 22.4% headline growth number has a strong base effect — IIP contracted by 18.7% in March 2020 — it suggests a strong revival in economic activity in March. The fact that other high frequency indicators such as Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections for April crossed ₹1.4 lakh crore also supports such a view.
To be sure, tailwinds from the festive season might have had a role in this pick-up. But it will not be far-fetched to assume that both the State and the markets were beginning to believe that the economy had left the pandemic behind it. Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) touched 99.3 in the last week of February. The weekly average of daily new cases reached its lowest levels since June 2020 in the first half of February. Everybody pressed on the throttle in March. And indeed, if all had been well, India’s economic recovery may have sustained.
But as India battles the second wave, it is clear that the optimism wasn’t warranted — and indeed, the spike in economic activity may well have exacerbated the health crisis. Had preventive and vigilance measures been put in place earlier, even if it had slowed down the transient economic recovery in March, the second wave may well have been muted. There is a lesson from this self-inflicted irrational exuberance — now that the government itself recognises the possibility of future waves. Markets are driven by self-interest and cannot be expected to mitigate risks from lowered vigilance against the pandemic. It is the State’s responsibility to cover for this rather than becoming a cheerleader.